For those following news of recurrent drought, protracted conflict and mass displacement in Somalia, Monday’s announcement of a Famine projection in the country’s southern Bay Region in the absence of sufficient relief funding likely came as little surprise.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) and other food security organizations have warned for months that eight areas of Somalia, including the Bay Region, face a risk of famine. Those concerns have grown following the region’s worst drought on record in March-April-May 2022, and ahead of an unprecedented likely fifth consecutive failed rainy season in October-November-December.

Monday’s announcement served as a stark reminder of how the funding and provision of assistance have failed to keep pace with the scale and severity of needs. 

“It seems, unfortunately, that history is at grave risk of repeating itself,” FEWS NET team leader, Kiersten Johnson, said. “In Somalia in 2011, alarm bells rang months in advance, but the response from the rest of the world was passive. The amount of aid sent wasn’t enough to meet peoples’ extreme need, and it led to a famine with mass casualties. Hundreds of thousands of people died. What we are saying to the world is that this moment — right now — is our last chance to change the course of events. Without an immediate and substantial increase in assistance to people in Somalia, it is very likely that another famine will take place.”

An analysis by the Famine Review Committee (FRC) indicated that, while alarming levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related deaths are already occurring in Somalia, between October-December 2022, those rates are likely to meet the technical thresholds for an official famine (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 5) declaration, should assistance halt in November and December, as current funding levels suggest.

A Famine Projection is a Rapidly Closing Window

For the first time in its history, the IPC system has projected a famine for an upcoming period without an ongoing famine declaration.

“A famine projection is extremely serious,” Johnson said. “There is still time to avert an official famine, but that window of opportunity is rapidly closing. People are already dying of starvation in the worst-affected areas of Somalia. Funding is needed, not only to prevent a full-fledged famine, but also to limit the deadly impacts of acute malnutrition that are already happening.”

If the worst-case scenario is realized, it will mark Somalia’s second famine in just over a decade, following a 2011 famine that claimed the lives of more than 250,000 people. As the population of Somalia has increased since the 2011 famine, so has the number of people at risk of severe outcomes as a result of drought and acute malnutrition. Today, the total number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia is estimated at 7 million, approximately double the number of people in need during the time of the 2011 famine.

The Role of Historic Drought in Driving Famine Conditions

Drought is a major factor driving the projection of famine in Somalia. The ongoing drought series — four failed rainy seasons in a row — is being described as the most extensive and persistent drought event since at least 1981, compared with the 2011 famine, which occurred after two failed rainy seasons. Global impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, record-breaking levels of inflation and the war in Ukraine have also contributed to the current situation in Somalia.

“The comparison with what happened in 2011 is complex”, Vanessa Roy, FEWS NET deputy chief of party for analysis, said. “The famine ended in 2012 in large part because, as soon as famine was declared, people reacted quickly to get in and provide assistance. But the response occurred after the famine declaration. In 2022, there is again an understanding that famine (IPC Phase 5) is likely without significant and sustained assistance but, unlike in 2011, access and mechanisms for delivering that assistance to prevent a famine are relatively more available.”

Despite continuous warnings and official analyses indicating risk of famine (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia, the humanitarian response plan in recent months has been considerably underfunded. While this is largely a result of several other ongoing global emergencies warranting both attention and funding, FEWS NET senior agroclimatologist, Chris Funk, also believes this may be at least partially attributable to something he describes as “drought fatigue.”

“Repetitive shocks aren’t very newsworthy,” Funk said. “There’s also kind of a gambler’s dilemma where people think, well, if there’s been two droughts in a row … you got four tails in a row, so next time you think it’s going to be a head.”

The FRC’s analysis indicated that famine is likely to occur without scaled-up, multisectoral assistance in Somalia’s Bay Region, specifically in Baidoa and Burkhaba districts and settlements of newly arrived, internally displaced people in Baidoa town.

Widespread Areas of Ethiopia and Kenya Also Severely Affected by Drought

While there are grave concerns over the likelihood of famine in the Bay Region, widespread areas of Ethiopia and Kenya — where livelihoods are similar and the scale of drought is comparable — also face extreme need.

“There isn’t information to suggest that there will be a halt in assistance in November and December in Kenya or Ethiopia, but we do know that the scale of response is significantly outpaced by the scale of needs in both countries,” Roy said. “Even with a continuation of current levels of assistance in Kenya and Ethiopia, the need would still significantly outpace the assistance.”

In Ethiopia, although the data needed to fully assess the situation on the ground is much more limited than in Somalia, the available information suggests widespread emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are ongoing, similarly signaling that high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality are already occurring. Worse outcomes remain possible, especially as forecasts indicate a high likelihood of another failed rainy season in late 2022.

As the culmination of conflict, incessant drought and rising food prices continues to affect communities across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, millions of people’s lives remain at risk.

“While there is appropriately extreme concern for the Bay Region of Somalia, and the focus is on Somalia right now, the scale of need is significant across the Horn of Africa,” Roy said. “We don’t want to lose sight of the widespread need across the wider Horn of Africa because there are high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality in Ethiopia and Kenya, as well, and those needs also warrant a massive scale-up of assistance.”

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